Hamatzav

Hamatzav.....literal translation, "the situation". That's how Israelis refer to the changing geo-political landscape in the region, specifically our continued conflict with the Arab world at large. And that's what today's blog will cover....the situation in Israel as I see it.

Over the past week, absolute chaos has ruled Gaza as Hamas quickly destroyed all vestiges of Fatah prominence in 5 days of fighting. Hopefully you heard the stories.....men dragged out of their homes and executed in front of their families, people thrown off building rooftops, Fatah supporters stripped down to their skivvies and paraded for the whole world to see, etc....The result? 2 separate Palestinian entities, Gaza controlled by the Islamist Hamas, backed by Iran and Syria, and the West Bank controlled by Fatah, the "moderate", pro-Western Palestinian ruling body. In fact, today Mahmoud Abbas swore in the interim Prime Minister Fayyad, his former Finance Minister, and a man with close ties to the West. Needless to say, I find this all really interesting. A few questions......What does this mean for the region? For Israel? For the Palestinians themselves? And how did this come about?

I will try to answer the last question first. The strengthening of Hamas came about by various variables, each contributing to this latest coup d'etat. Firstly, the Americans pushed for elections and the Israelis allowed it. Much like the Liberal party of Canada lost control of Parliament to Harper's Conservatives over a $350,000 sponsorship scandal, so too did Hamas reap the rewards of a corrupt PA, which, under Arafat's "leadership" squandered billions. It was just as much a vote against Fatah as it was a vote in favour of Hamas. Next, Israel unilaterally left Gaza. Now, don't get me wrong, I felt at the time it was the right move, allowing our troops to focus their attention elsewhere. But, that pullout coupled with our pullout of Southern Lebanon 7 years ago, allowed extremist groups a firmer foundation on which to re-arm, re-train and attack. Much like Hezbollah became stronger when we left town (killing anti-Syrian MP's, the most recent MP Eido and 9 others this past weekend), so too did Hamas gain strength in our absence. And just as we went to war for 33 days last summer with Hezbollah, so too will we engage Hamas (in 3 weeks according to the new Defence Minister, Ehud Barak). Add to the mix Fatah's inability to quell Hamas, or even their apathy in allowing Hamas to take over, we have a recipe for disaster for the Palestinian people.

And we have 2 de facto Palestinian states, one a theocracy ruled by terrorists, another a sham democracy ruled by other terrorists.

But that's not it. As aforementioned, Lebanon is another battleground to keep an eye on. Fatah al-Islam, acting as a proxy (like Hamas) for Iran, continues to attack Tripoli and assasinate anti-Syrian forces. As a result, the Lebanese army has responded harshly, bombing the refugee camp and decimating the terrorists with tactics that would cause an international uproar should Israel have used them. And yet, somehow, these "experts" cry that the cause of this latest round of terror is not provoked by the axis of evil, but somehow is blamed on Israel and the poverty in which the refugees live.

Continuing with our tour of terror, we have Syria. Syria has been re-arming their military ever since the junior king took over rule from his dad. He has much to prove. Both to his people and to the Arab world. And if you are, like me, convinced that Saddam sent his WMD's to Syria before the American cavalry arrived, there is much to worry about in the Northern front.

Moving east, we reach Iraq. And thank G-d for the Hashmite Kingsdom of Jordan. For if not for Jordan, there would be a straight corridor from Iran and Iraq to Israel, in which terror could be perpetrated on unseen levels. As long as pro-Western Jordan remains a buffer state, Israel need not worry too much about it's Eastern front.

Finally, we have Egypt. The self proclaimed leaders of the Arab world have as much to worry about Hamas as Israel does. With the Muslim Brotherhood active in the country, and Hamas now running the show in Gaza, Egypt can only lose by going up against the Muslim extremists, and can only gain by not only allowing, but provocking continued attacks against Israel. I mean, better us than them, right?

So what does this mean for Israel? I think it means we are at another crossroads, another opportunity to succeed, and another opportunity to fail. We can restart peace talks with Fatah and the West Bank while attacking and trying to destroy Hamas' stronghold in Gaza. But it also means that we will be condemned internationally, and, based on last summer's War, this summer could very well set us back to 1967. We are sick of this constant state of war. We want peace. But if we have no one to negotiate with, or, if our negotiating partners cannot control their own people, where does that leave us?

And for the Palestinian people? I know better than to speak for them, but they have a huge opportunity here. Will the "silent majority" speak up and condemn the terror they have witnessed first hand? Will they seek a just and lasting resolution with Israel? Or will they caught up in this latest round of escalated violence and continue to fall victim to their own leadership?

My call? I see a full scale military conflict with Syria and Hezbollah on the Northern front, and a large scale operation in Gaza happening simutaneously by August 1st of this summer. That's hamatzav for me, anyways.....